Defining a Long-term Care Workforce Shortage Designation: A Conceptual Approach

The aging of the US population is a well-documented phenomenon. In just 7 years, an estimated 73 million Americans will be aged 65 and over, equal to 21% of the population. Aging is associated with increased consumption of health care, and more specifically, long-term care services and supports (LTSS). The direct care workforce includes many categories of health care workers who provide LTSS (see Table 1 for which professions and occupations were included for this research brief). This workforce is estimated to add more than 1.3 million jobs between 2018-2028. However, it is not clear that this job growth will be sufficient to meet the demand. Moreover, it is likely that growth of the direct care workforce will occur unevenly across geographic areas.